School Enrollment Projections data - April 15, 2024

In January 2024, the Weldon Cooper Center released its first round of school enrollment projections for Virginia’s 131 divisions by grade for the next five years.

These projections are based on birth trends and past school enrollment. The pandemic, however, significantly impacted many school divisions and certain grades (particularly kindergarten and lower grades). The sudden drop of more than 45,000 students in Virginia’s public schools in 2020 considerably changed the trajectory of pre-covid trends and posed a challenge to projecting school enrollment for the next five years. View our methodology document to understand how we accounted for the pandemic’s impact when developing our projections.

This iteration of our school enrollment projections was released on January 16, 2024. A three-month review period extended to March 31, 2024, in which we invited school divisions to review these projections and provide feedback. Projections were then adjusted and a final version was published on April 15, 2024.